PENGARUH HARGA EMAS DUNIA DAN EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP INDEKS SAHAM SYARIAH INDONESIA (ISSI)
Abstract
Abstrak
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga emas dunia dan variabel ekonomi makro yaitu inflasi, nilai tukar rupiah, PDB dan BI Rate terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) periode 2017-2023. Jenis penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu analisis kuantitatif dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Adapun hasil penelitian ini yaitu dalam jangka pendek harga emas dunia dan nilai tukar rupiah memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI), sedangkan inflasi, PDB dan BI rate tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap ISSI. Dalam jangka panjang harga emas dunia, nilai tukar rupiah dan PDB memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) sedangkan, inflasi dan BI rate berpengaruh negatif terhadap ISSI. Terakhir, Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) merespon positif shock yang diberikan oleh harga emas, nilai tukar rupiah, dan BI rate, sedangkan respon negatif diberikan oleh inflasi dan PDB.
Kata Kunci: Harga Emas Dunia, Ekonomi Makro, ISSI
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of world gold prices and macroeconomic variables is inflation, rupiah exchange rate, GDP and BI rate on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) for the 2017-2023 period.. The type of research used in this study is quantitative analysis with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The results of this study are that in the short term the world gold price and the rupiah exchange rate have a positive influence on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), while inflation, GDP and BI rate have no influence on the ISSI. Meanwhile, in the long term, the world gold price, rupiah exchange rate and GDP have a positive influence on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), while inflation and BI rate have a negative effect on the ISSI. Finally, the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) responds positively to the shock given by the gold price, rupiah exchange rate, and BI rate, while the negative response is given by inflation and GDP.
Keywords: World Gold Price, Macroeconomics, ISSI
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