Dampak Faktor Eksternal Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia
Abstract
Indonesia adalah salah satu negara yang menggunakan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai indikator kinerja ekonomi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan sangat diharapkan oleh pemerintah Indonesia, sebagai salah satu upaya untuk mencapai kemakmuran bagi masyarakat Indonesia. Studi ini mencoba melihat pengaruh impor, pengiriman uang (remiten), foreign direct investment (FDI), dan harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Estimasi yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method, dan digunakan untuk melihat efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel impor secara signifikan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Sementara itu, variabel FDI memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Variabel remitansi memiliki hubungan negatif, tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek, selain itu remitansi juga memiliki pengaruh positif, tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek variabel harga minyak dunia (world oil price) berpengaruh secara signifikan negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Rekomendasi yang diberikan, diantaranya perlunya perbaikan dan pengembangan tata kelola pada sektor migas untuk mengurangi ketergantungan impor migas, mendorong model proyek yang dapat mendorong timbulnya kegiatan ekonomi baru, memuculkan kepastian hukum yang jelas dan terpercaya kepada investor khusunya dari asing, dan perlunya pengelolaan remiten yang berorientasi pada pemunculan usaha produktif dengan potofolio manjemen keuangan rumah tangga untuk masa depan.
Kata Kunci: Foreign Direct Investment; Impor; Pertumbuhan Ekonomi; Remitansi; World Oil Price
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